By Keith Aitken in Edinburgh | 10 February 2014
CIPFA Scotland has announced that it is undertaking a project to create a 'balance sheet' for Scotland that it is hoped will start to redress a lack of objective information about the implications of the independence referendum for the public finances.
In an interview with Public Finance, the new head of CIPFA Scotland, Don Peebles, talked about plans to publish a series of contributions in the coming months intended to give Scottish voters the reliable and impartial data they need to reach a measured decision when they go to the polling booths on September 18.
Peebles, who took over from Angela Scott in November, said he believed voters would be empowered by a balance sheet for Scotland. ‘What we’re likely to do is to take a sample of the huge streams of information that are being produced by the different sides of the debate, assess the veracity of that information, and try to break that down for dissemination in the debate.’
He acknowledged the exercise would be politically delicate, given intense arguments over the reliability of key indicators, including projected oil revenues or Scotland’s share of UK debt. Part of the aim would be to suggest different ways of arriving at such figures, Peebles said, adding that despite the advent of UK Whole of Government Accounts, Scotland and indeed other parts of the UK needed more transparency in their public finances, whatever the outcome of the vote.
‘I think we are aware, rather than wary, of the political risks,’ Peebles said. ‘But there is no bigger single public finance or constitutional issue that we will face in our lifetimes.
‘We sense that there is an appetite for a view from CIPFA, and we have had approaches already from organisations seeking a CIPFA opinion in the debate.’
The Scottish Government had invited CIPFA to participate in informal talks on some of the implications of its independence White Paper.
‘At no time will anyone be able to say that CIPFA supports one side [of the debate] or the other,’ Peebles stressed. ‘That will never be the case and we will jealously safeguard our own independence in this debate.
‘But our Royal Charter also requires us to serve the public interest, and at the moment the public interest is perhaps not being served. The public need help to find their way through to the finances of whatever the situation will be.’
Peebles has reshuffled portfolios at CIPFA’s Scottish office, bringing in Dr Eleanor Roy, formerly with the Welsh Assembly, to take charge of the independence analysis.
He expects to begin with an initial publication in the first quarter of 2014: ‘That will look at what we may see as the key areas for consideration and try to place an interpretation on what seem to be competing streams of information.’
More specific topics for inquiry might include state pensions, where the Scottish Government has said it is confident of an independent Scotland’s capacity to meet current obligations, while a House of Lords report last year took a contrary view.
‘If you are a member of the public, what do you actually believe? Where does the truth lie? If there’s a pathway through all that, we would hope that by using our sound financial management approach we can start to make matters clearer for the public,’ Peebles said.
