Labour could reverse its 2008 local losses, says LGIU

1 May 12
Labour could pick up as many as 300 council seats in the local elections on Thursday, the head of the Local Government Information Unit has predicted.

By Richard Johnstone | 1 May 2012

Labour could pick up as many as 300 council seats in the local elections on Thursday, the head of the Local Government Information Unit has predicted.

Andy Sawford said that the party could reverse its 2008 losses in the 149 English and Welsh councils up for election. When these authorities were last contested, the Conservatives gained more than 250 councillors, mostly from Labour in an average swing of 12%.

In last year’s local elections, Labour gained more than 850 council seats and control of 26 authorities on a 10% swing. Sawford said outperforming this percentage change would be seen ‘as a good result’ for Ed Miliband’s party.  He added that last year’s pattern of Conservative losses to Labour being offset by gains from the Liberal Democrats could be repeated, with the best Tory hopes in contests against their coalition partners.

Meanwhile, the LibDems will seek to defy the national swing against them in local council heartlands such as Portsmouth and Stockport.

Campaigning has been taking place for the elections over the past month. LGIU has highlighted 50 main battlegrounds. They include 37 authorities in England – nine unitary councils, eight metropolitan boroughs and 20 districts – as well as six in Wales and seven in Scotland.

Derby is one to watch. It is currently run by a Conservative-LibDem coalition but Labour is the largest single party. Labour wants to gain the four seats needed for overall control, but only a third of councillors are up for election.

The battle in Birmingham is similar, with the Conservatives and LibDems running the city and Labour looking to build on its position as the largest party.

The city is also one of ten in England that will hold a referendum on creating the post of elected city mayor. As well as the plebiscites on the change, three cities that have already created the position will also vote. Salford and Liverpool will elect mayors for the first time, while London will hold its fourth mayoral election.

In Wales, where there are elections in all but one of the 22 local authorities, Labour will want to win back many of the 100 seats it lost when these authorities were last contested in 2008. 

The LGIU predicts that Labour could take overall control of Bridgend, Newport and Swansea, while the LibDems could lose seats to Labour in Cardiff. The Conservatives might emerge as the lead partner in a new coalition in Conwy.

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