Scottish independence polls narrow as voter registration deadline passes

3 Sep 14
Electoral registration staff in Scotland have been inundated with tens of thousands of last-minute registrations to vote in Scotland’s independence referendum on September 18, as polling suggested a rapid narrowing of the gap between the two campaigns.

By Keith Aitken in Edinburgh | 3 September 2014

Electoral registration staff in Scotland have been inundated with tens of thousands of last-minute registrations to vote in Scotland’s independence referendum on September 18, as polling suggested a rapid narrowing of the gap between the two campaigns.

A YouGov poll for The Times and The Sun newspapers has put the Yes campaign just six points behind the opponents of independence at 47-53 per cent, discounting the 10 per cent of voters who remain undecided. Although YouGov showed the gap closing faster than do other pollsters, four other polls in recent weeks have also shown the yes side closing the gap.

‘A close finish looks likely, and a yes victory is now a real possibility,’ Peter Kellner, YouGov’s president, said in an online commentary on the poll. ‘The yes campaign has both gained converts, and secured a two-to-one lead among people who were undecided and have now taken sides.’

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said independence was ‘closer than it has even been’, while No campaign leaders admitted privately they expect a tight result and were working hard to discourage complacency among their supporters.

The consequence has been a marked intensification of effort in the two opposing camps as the two-year referendum nears its end. This prompted a plea from the moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland, the Rt Rev John Chalmers, for respect among supporters of both campaigns.

Both sides have been urgently trying to persuade Scotland’s ‘missing million’ voters – those generally too disillusioned to turn out for elections – to register ahead of yesterday’s deadline to make sure their voice was heard.

The Yes campaign in particular believes that many of these apathetic electors were traditional Labour supporters, who have grown disenchanted with the party and are ripe for persuasion to vote in favour of independence. However, Labour leaders insisted they see little sign on the doorsteps of significant defections among their core vote.

Meanwhile, three former Conservative Scottish secretaries from the pre-devolution era today voiced support for the union. Lord Lang, Lord Forsyth and Sir Malcolm Rifkind issued a joint statement denouncing the ‘myth’ that Scotland was exploited by its bigger neighbour. ‘We believe that the value and the emotional appeal of the present Union is far more compelling than the mirage of independence,’ they said.

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