01 September 2006
As many as one in ten local authorities might have population figures that are flawed, the senior government statistician in charge of compiling them has admitted to Public Finance.
Peter Goldblatt, director of the demography centre at the Office for National Statistics, told PF that a number of factors affecting the quality of the mid-year population estimates had been identified and solutions were being urgently sought. It is the first time the scale of the problem has been quantified.
Goldblatt, who is in overall charge of producing the figures used to plan and fund local public services, said the 'improving migration and population statistics' programme was getting to grips with the problems.
'The study has identified the areas with similar problems to those found in the 2001 Census. These are factors such as high levels of international migration, large numbers of young men and students,' he said. 'About 10% of authorities are affected in one way or another by these factors.'
Goldblatt, speaking as the population estimates for 2005 were published by the ONS on August 24, said government statisticians were examining how to using central data sources, such as national insurance numbers, national school databases and NHS information to improve the accuracy of the figures.
But he warned that changes would be made only if they were based on data that could be collated on a consistent basis across all areas. 'We can't use information that is collated in different ways in different authorities, because we have to come up with the best estimates across all authorities.'
The latest estimates have been greeted with derision by some local authorities, however, who claim they do not reflect rising immigration from eastern Europe.
Slough Borough Council, which has been spearheading a high-profile campaign on behalf of around 25 authorities who say their population figures do not account for these new migrants, hit out angrily at the 'inadequate statistics'.
Council leader Richard Stokes said the area was a migration success story, but warned that the government was putting community cohesion at risk by not funding services adequately.
'The ONS figures are not fit for the purpose of distributing £49bn of government funding to councils,' he said.
'To build cohesive communities, it is imperative that councils provide good services across the board, from street cleaning to services curbing antisocial behaviour. The government is failing to fund councils like Slough appropriately.'
PFsep2006
