Public sceptical about statistics, finds ONS

3 Mar 05
The public believes that the government manipulates official statistics, according to a report from the Office for National Statistics, published on February 28.

04 March 2005

The public believes that the government manipulates official statistics, according to a report from the Office for National Statistics, published on February 28.

The report, based on joint research with the Statistics Commission, also describes as a 'priority' attempts to reinforce the independence of the ONS amid continued accusations that economic reporting has become politicised.

Researchers found 'concern that there was interference at certain stages of the statistical process, particularly in determining definitions and choosing what statistics to collect'.

There was also a 'perception among participants that the government manipulated official statistics'.

The study was published on the same day that the ONS revealed the value of a revision to road maintenance accounting in the National Accounts. This has provided Chancellor Gordon Brown with a timely £3.4bn boost to meeting his fiscal rules in advance of the expected general election in May.

ONS revisions redressed inconsistencies in the way some current spending, depreciation and gross investment were accounted for, eradicating double counting. It redefined some spending as capital investment and not, as before, simple expenditure. Statisticians valued past errors at £400m to £500m annually, and £2.1bn to date over the course of the current economic cycle 1999/2000 to 2005/06.

It means Brown stands a greater chance of avoiding breaching his 'golden rule' of borrowing only to invest over an economic cycle.

Shadow chancellor Oliver Letwin said: 'There will inevitably be suspicion that figures are being fiddled,' because Treasury staff had supported the ONS in identifying the double counting.

An independent analysis of the change by the Institute for Fiscal Studies states that 'under the assumption that the latest revisions persist in the future, the chancellor could borrow an extra £3.4bn over the remaining months of the economic cycle without breaking the golden rule.'

IFS senior research economist Christine Frayne said the revisions were 'conveniently timed' because they came 'less than three weeks before what is likely to be a pre-election Budget'.

But she stopped short of accusing the government of interference, saying there was 'no evidence the ONS had acted improperly'.

However, the ONS/Statistics Commission report indicates that the public would view the move with cynicism.

National statistician Len Cook said the results showed that the ONS should focus on 'improving communication' and 'reinforcing the independence of the ONS'.

PFmar2005

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