04 June 2004
The government is steeling itself to lose control of large cities and towns in its traditional northern heartlands when the urban centres outside London go to the polls next week.
The key battleground on June 10 – labelled 'Super Thursday' because it will combine local and European elections with the London mayoral and Assembly votes – is set to be the metropolitan district authorities. These 36 councils, which are normally elected by thirds, are having all-out elections as a result of the first boundary changes in 20 years.
They are traditionally Labour strongholds, but the other parties believe that this year's whole-council votes are a chance to exploit disaffection with the government.
A good showing for the Conservatives would also hand the party control of the Local Government Association for the first time. Labour is currrently the largest party, controlling 37.8% of its seats after weighting, with the Tories second on 34.4%. The Liberal Democrats have 20.7% and independents 7.1%.
Tory officials are quietly confident and estimate they need to gain around 350 seats to become the largest party on the LGA. In total, 6,103 seats on 166 councils are up for grabs.
If they make the leap, Sir Sandy Bruce-Lockhart, Kent County Council leader, would succeed Labour group leader Sir Jeremy Beecham as the chair of the LGA.
But, publicly, LGA Tory group leader Peter Chalke downplayed the likelihood of this happening. 'We are hoping to make these gains but these are not an easy set of elections to predict, so we are certainly not saying it is going to happen,' he said.
The Liberal Democrats, hoping to capitalise on their position as the only anti-Iraq war party, have set their sights on winning control of Kirklees in West Yorkshire, Newcastle, and Sheffield.
They are also aiming to break new ground in the Northwest: the party is hoping for big gains in Manchester, and is looking to cut into Labour majorities in the neighbouring authorities of Burnley, Bury, Oldham and Rochdale.
The Tories, meanwhile, are aiming to seize back control of Trafford after ten years in opposition. In the Midlands, they are hoping to take overall control of Coventry and Walsall. In addition, they are looking for gains in North Tyneside and the Wirral.
Birmingham, the largest council in the country, is the greatest prize of all. Labour became a minority administration in 2003 and at the moment the race for control is still wide open.
Howard Sykes, chief executive of the Association of Liberal Democrat Councillors, said the LibDems were expecting a good result overall.
'Anyone who says they can call these elections is a liar. But we're confident of increasing our representation in the large cities and urban areas, and capitalising on Labour's unpopularity.'
Beecham conceded that the party was mounting a 'defensive' election campaign. But he added: 'It won't be a uniform showing, we will win in some areas and lose in others.'
PFjun2004
