News analysis Claimed drop in asylum seekers draws fire

29 May 03
It is dramatic, to say the least: applications for asylum fell from 8,900 last October to 4,565 in March this year just as Tony Blair suggested and in line with his promise to cut the monthly figure to 4,450 by September. If only all the public sec.

30 May 2003

It is dramatic, to say the least: applications for asylum fell from 8,900 last October to 4,565 in March this year – just as Tony Blair suggested and in line with his promise to cut the monthly figure to 4,450 by September.

If only all the public sector responded so easily to central edict, the prime minister must be thinking.

Yet his opponents haven't exactly been congratulating him. 'It is impossible to escape the impression that while the number of actual asylum applications may be down, the number of people entering the country is little changed,' says shadow home secretary Oliver Letwin MP. 'I seriously doubt that the measures taken could have had such a rapid effect on the figures.'

Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman Simon Hughes had a different argument: 'The fall is not as remarkable as the government would have us believe. Asylum numbers rise and fall; October 2002 was a high watermark, and the figures have now fallen back to the same level as two years ago. The fall in the number of Iraqi asylum seekers goes a long way to explain today's figures.'

A similar explanation is presented by the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants (JCWI). Chief executive Habib Rahman suggests that numbers have simply dropped back to their consistent level after a blip caused by fear of war in Iraq and by those fleeing oppression in Zimbabwe and Afghanistan. The Taliban terror is over and Afghanistan is stabilising and the war in Iraq is over, says Rahman. Meanwhile, he says, legitimate Zimbabwean asylum seekers now find it extremely difficult to gain access to the UK because they must apply for visas before leaving the country.

The JCWI and the Refugee Council list other factors contributing to the latest figures: Sri Lanka's peace process is proving durable, reducing the numbers fleeing the country; tensions in the Balkans have eased; and the closure of the Sangatte camp and greater co-operation with France have cut numbers.

The government claims that action on Sangatte and increasing Channel Tunnel security have been key factors. Sangatte's clearance had a symbolic importance for the government as it spreads a message internationally that the UK does not welcome refugees.

This is reinforced, says the JCWI, by the removal of social benefits from in-country applicants. Open discussion of further measures – such as the introduction of identity cards, the withdrawal of legal aid for asylum seekers and the use of 'asylum havens' within a refugee's region of origin – emphasises the point.

But the JCWI maintains that these moves would infringe human rights and penalise asylum seekers who are genuinely fleeing war and oppression. This view is supported by the Refugee Council, which adds that the only real solution is to resolve the causes, as has been achieved in Sri Lanka.

So, the government finds its statistics distrusted by the opposition on one hand, while being attacked by refugee groups for being unfair on the other.

The Association of London Government, however, is in no doubt that there is a real downward trend. It reports an astonishing drop in the number of asylum seekers supported by London boroughs from 90,000 to just 40,000.

An ALG spokeswoman says: 'We welcome the government's programme to improve the assessment and support of asylum applications.' She adds that the ALG would also like more financial support for the boroughs to help them fulfil their responsibilities.

There is tension on the subject inside the LGA, reflected in a motion tabled for its July annual conference. Fareham Borough Council is calling for more policy coherence from the government and more Home Office consultation with local authorities.

The signs are that, under pressure caused by the rise of the British National Party and tabloid newspaper headlines, the government's tough line on asylum will continue. But falling figures tell only part of the story. Abas Amini is an Iranian Kurdish political poet and Communist activist who has been tortured. He is now on hunger strike and has sewn up his own lips, ears and eyelids in protest at the Home Office's appeal against an immigration tribunal decision that he could stay in the UK.

The government may be embarrassed by the publicity over the Abas case. But it is likely to find that the price of appeasing the tabloids will be many more such cases appearing in the liberal press.


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