There is little love lost for the major parties ahead of local and European elections. The future is unclear and, as a result, policy-making has an air of desperation
Election season is upon us. Next month there will be a UK-wide vote for the European parliament alongside mainly city-based local polls. The 11 new councils in Northern Ireland will also be elected, in shadow form. In Scotland, on 18 September, the most important UK vote in modern times will occur. The electorate will have its last opportunity before next year’s general election to send signals to the political parties.
Many of these signals are unlikely to be ones most national politicians want to hear. The recent revival of the MPs’ expenses scandal, thanks to Maria Miller, yet again reminded Britain’s political class how disliked they are. Another case, involving Patrick Mercer, has further rekindled the story. A growing lack of trust in MPs (collectively, if not individually) runs in parallel with other indicators that are deeply worrying for all political parties – with the possible exception of Ukip. On top of this, Scotland could vote either way.
The total ‘Conservative plus Labour’ vote in UK general elections has declined from over 97% in the 1950s to barely 65% in 2010. Party memberships are tiny compared to the 1960s and 1970s, leading to an unhealthy and unpopular dependence on rich individuals and trade unions. Opinion polling about the credibility of what politicians promise makes gloomy reading.
Failure to notice the conditions that led to the 2008 financial crisis only reinforced the idea that the people who govern the country are not up to the job. A measure of the problem is that when comedian Russell Brand pops up in the media with a ‘why vote?’ message, he is taken seriously on BBC news analysis programmes.
But it is the popularity of Ukip, above all else, that signals to the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats that the times are a-changing. The LibDems have suffered terribly for joining the coalition. Their role as a party of protest has evaporated, leaving them with, it would appear, broadly 7 to 11% of the popular vote. Labour, and in particular Ed Miliband, have found it impossible to generate a big poll lead. The gap between Labour and the Tories shrunk throughout the early part of 2014. The Conservatives, even as the economy has started to grow, have seen part of their activist base eaten alive by Ukip.
These trends will affect the preparation of manifestos both for this year’s polls and for the 2015 general election. None of the political parties has the faintest idea of what the future holds for them. Against this backdrop, policy-making for public services will be tinged with desperation. The parties need to offer voters a package of services, either directly or through regulated private companies. However, because the political class has seen its authority decline, on many issues parties and governments now lack the self-confidence to lead opinion.
In an attempt to bolster trust, the government has considered offering constituencies a power to ‘recall’ their MPs: that is, it would be possible to trigger a byelection where voters felt their MP was guilty of wrongdoing. It is hard to see that such a step would be sufficient to reverse the long-term trends in British politics. Ukip will do well in the Euro elections and will gain some council seats. Whether they have any MPs after the 2015 election will be a signal about the party’s durability.
Nigel Farage may never become prime minister, but he is shaping politics in a way that suggests the 2014 elections will be the first of many where insurgency affects policy-making. British public policy will from now on be shaped in an environment very different from the broadly settled political conditions that prevailed for many years after 1945.
Tony Travers is director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics
This opinion piece was first published in the May edition of Public Finance magazine
