Riotous assemblies

30 Aug 11
Tony Travers

Continuing economic uncertainty, coalition tensions, phone hacking and civil disorder are among the challenges facing politicians at this year’s round of party conferences

At the end of the most serious ‘silly season’ in modern times, normal politics is now being resumed. The party conference season is an annual marker of the end of summer and the run-up to the Queen’s Speech in November.

After an extraordinarily challenging political year, politicians of all parties must begin the task of ordering their thoughts about the coalition’s early middle-age. Party conferences, despite appearances to the contrary, are useful places to begin to consider new policies and, more importantly, how to improve the implementation of existing ones.

The season kicks off, as is traditional, with the Liberal Democrats. After a grim political year, Nick Clegg and his party have been attempting to show the impact they have had within the coalition and their distinction from the Conservatives.

The future of the NHS is probably tied to the relationship between Tory reform hawks and LibDem doves. But there are also profound differences on issues such as police commissioners and pensions.

There will be dissent and worry at the Birmingham conference. Clegg will need to comfort his party with promises of a better tomorrow, particularly when (and if) gross domestic product grows more rapidly in 2012. Distinctive views about public service reform, strengthening the economy and civil liberties are likely to be expressed. Next year’s local elections also need to be less grim for the party. The opinions of LibDem councillors about Communities Secretary Eric Pickles’s robust approach to local government should be the highlight of fringe meetings.

Labour will be in Liverpool. Ed Miliband has blossomed since the start of the hacking scandal, leading public debate on several issues. This could have been a difficult conference season for him, but he now looks more comfortable. However, things can change again. Labour has created an over-sized and incomprehensible policy process. Its economic approach involves attacking ‘the cuts’ and arguing for a slower path of deficit reduction. The conference will be an opportunity for Miliband and Ed Balls to flesh out a distinct view. Being negative can get an opposition only so far. They need to look like a potential government.

The global banking failure and subsequent economic chaos ought to have given centre-Left politicians across Europe an opportunity to evolve economic thinking. But there has been virtually nothing new – simply an attempt to rekindle growth by higher short-term borrowing. Similarly, what would Labour do on health, policing and education? If the party can come up with alternative industrial and taxation policy that convinces the electorate, it would be well set for a 2014 or 2015 election.

The Conservatives have a number of things to be confident about when they arrive in Manchester. Their poll ratings have held up well since the 2010 general election. George Osborne’s economic policies have kept Britain surprisingly unscathed by the chaos in the eurozone and the US. GDP growth has fallen back, but it still seems likely Britain will grow by 1.25% to 1.5% in 2011 and by 2% or more in 2012. Given the mayhem in the markets, this will seem OK.

But there are dark clouds. If growth stalls overseas, a double-dip recession remains a serious threat. No ‘Plan B’ would mean deeper public spending cuts. The coalition’s NHS and policing plans are under relentless threat. Localism and the Big Society remain unknown unknowns. For a government that started with radical enthusiasm, a sense of drift is becoming evident.

The three major parties, by visiting Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester, have started the process of ‘normalising’ public perceptions of British cities after the August riots. The conferences will have to debate the significance and consequences of that civil disorder.

The start of the political season is a new beginning. Politicians need to convince a dazed electorate that political action and state institutions can protect them while creating a convincing framework for a decent future. Britain is a rich and resourceful country. Its people need a sense of optimism and possibility.

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