It’s the census, stupid. Why ministers are focused on the wrong missing millions

17 Nov 22

Until the centre understands the reality of how public services actually work in reality, the cycle of crisis and cuts will continue.

UK map

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But there’s a critical issue that wasn’t talked about and many of the government’s problems won’t get better until they do.

Most children are told that if you’re lost, ask a police officer for help.

According to the Police Federation, the British population has gone up by the same number of people as live in Wales – roughly 5 million.

The UK census data shows a country that’s changed and increased demand on services as a result.

But the government’s announcements have yet to match that reality. The missing figures are people.

And, according to the Institute for Government, they’re going to be poorer despite some delays to tax rises: “Even today’s short-term giveaways will not avoid households experiencing a sharp fall in living standards this year and next.”

There are stark problems.

Ahead of Hunt’s announcements, the County Councils Network revealed its members are grappling with £3.5bn in inflationary and demand costs this year and next – which is more than double the expected rise.

In short, they are battling just to stand still and demand is going to continue to rise.

CIPFA’s performance tracker published in the autumn set out the challenges in detail with red flags in most service areas.

But the government has limited visibility – even if ministers actually wanted to know.

Critically, the data on where Whitehall thinks they are is hopelessly out of date. That’s critical because those spreadsheets are used to decide funding allocations.

So, the starting point for absolutely everything from the NHS to Levelling Up is flawed.

But this is a multi-layered problem for the government.

Ahead of the statement, the Bank of England set out the intrinsic imbalances that are now built into the UK economy – not least the failure to return to pre-Covid levels of activity. 

The statement was a short-term fix with no new ideas compounded by a fundamental misunderstanding of local delivery and demand.

Fixing the NHS isn’t just about waiting lists and ambulance waiting times, as horrifically bad as they are.

Charlotte Pickles of the King’s Fund explained: “This can’t just be about healthcare spending. The NHS only directly impacts about 20% of the determinants of health. A lot of the wider determinants are more impacted by councils. It’s early access to mental health services, better housing and more.”

The next layer to the UK’s problems is Whitehall itself.

It’s not just the patchy data, it’s departments still working in silos.

Here’s one example: Home Office plans to create welfare support for police officers (the Police Covenant) didn’t take into account that health is a devolved issue in Wales.

The criminal justice system needs the NHS to work, social housing joined to health and prisons plus good local training providers working with employers.

Policing could also impact on reoffending rates but it is propping up ambulance and mental health services.

These are just examples.

Further compounding this is the lack of understanding among ministers of how public services work day-to-day.

There have now been 14 housing ministers since 2010. Any skilled job takes years to learn and the churn has been repeated across government.

The disconnect between the centre and local delivery has been an open secret since 2010.

There was bewilderment among ministers as to why then-PM David Cameron’s mother went on a march to save Sure Start services in Oxfordshire.

Children impacted by that decision are now teenagers and they now face at least two years of challenges. Commitment to school spending isn’t going to outweigh the impact of family poverty and the other factors that decide outcomes.

And since 2010, the political landscape has changed.

In the early days of the coalition LGA figures met then-communities secretary Eric Pickles and new chancellor George Osborne’s team to delight in telling them budgets could be cut.

The message this time around has been different. Weary local politicians have made clear they won’t carry the blame.

Norfolk’s leader warned the prospect of finding a £60m shortfall "does not sit with me".

The county’s police and crime commissioner has warned the precept can’t carry the extra cost rises any longer.

And there’s the impact on the so-called Red Wall seats whose councils must bid for £1.7bn in local projects.  

According to SIGOMA, Hull, one of the top ten most deprived local authority areas in the country, has seen a real-terms reduction of £119m in its yearly budget compared to 2010-11, which equates to having £962 per household less to spend each year. 

Soon, competing with the Red Wall leaders for funds will be new regional mayors.

It all adds up to a huge mess.

County Councils Network warned: “Unless government addresses inflation next year, and the economy picks up before 2025, councils’ funding shortfall will grow year-on-year and become unsustainable.”

Before then will be the May local elections due next year – which come after increased council tax bills land on top of energy bills.

Which brings us back to the chancellor’s plans.

UNISON’s general secretary claims in the current PF edition that the government is aiming to get to Spring next year.

Jeremy Hunt’s statement claims to go beyond then. But it doesn’t go far enough or look deep enough at the UK’s disjointed public services.

CIPFA’s performance tracker warned there is little awareness of three issues: “The nature of demand has changed; the impact on staff and the progress of efforts to reduce backlogs or address unmet needs”.

Acknowledging problems is the start of recovery. The UK census data can be found here.

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