Monday briefing: Our special crisis guide, a local government Lord Kitchener and a population explosion

5 Feb 24

Health in crisis, council recruitment under pressure, Pedicabs and people in our week ahead briefing

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According to trend-watchers, the 70s era is coming back in style – and how better to look at the week ahead by journeying back five decades.

Office work is now three-days-a-week for many people, flared trousers are back and there are strikes across the country.

A perfect moment to recall the claimed quote by then-PM Jim Callaghan: “Crisis, what crisis.”


NHS under pressure

The winter flu has hit record levels and demand for social care remains a huge issue. The strain on NHS responses to both flu and cancer made headlines last week.

This week the focus is shifting to the need for more work on preventative services that could help reduce pressure on the emergency parts of the system. The Times Health Commission has revealed a range of innovations.

Sarah Woolnough, chief executive of The King’s Fund, said central government just needs to get on with it.   

She said: “Our health and our health care services are at a crisis point. There is much agreement about what needs to happen. This includes creating policies that address health rather than just healthcare, shifting the focus to prevention and early intervention services, maximising the potential of innovation, and ramping up efforts to retain staff and boost the workforce.”

Much of this echoes work by CIPFA on how to improve social care.   

She added: “There is precedent to show that when political will exists, and a long-term approach is taken, significant improvements to health and to healthcare services can be made.”


People who need people

Reducing pressure on the NHS would involve local authorities, not least because of their lead in social care and public health.

But the new crisis looming is that not only do councils not have enough money, they don’t have the workforce capacity to deliver.

Forget the headlines about conscription for young people. Local government needs an army of its own.

Recruiting people is now a critical issue and a report released today calls for local government to adopt a new national campaign.

Research from the County Councils Network, carried out by PwC, called Workforce of the Future, revealed capacity issues have been exacerbated in recent years by post-pandemic trends.

Since 2012, the sector has lost more than 500,000 jobs.

The core issue is that local government, social care and the NHS are up against supermarkets that can match pay, pensions and family-friendly hours.

The survey reveals that just one in four employees anticipate staying in local government for a short period of time, and highlights ‘negative perceptions’ and ‘misconceptions’ over how the sector is perceived to potential new recruits.

To do so, the report recommends ‘career development cycles’ to help showcase the wide range of opportunities for individuals in their areas.

Cllr Tim Oliver, chairman of the County Councils Network, said: “If we are to recruit and retain workers then we need a new national brand for local government. This should mirror how the NHS has put itself at the forefront of peoples’ minds as a potential employer and tackle negative perceptions of what councils do.”


In Westminster

MPs have Treasury questions on Tuesday and the local government finance reports get a vote on Wednesday.

The House of Lords will be carrying out 'tidy up' of the Pedicabs (London) Bill – their description – tomorrow. The legislation was called for by Westminster City Council and could also be the start of tackling private hire bikes which have cause alarm among disability campaigners.

The Lords Industry and Regulators Committee hears form Claire Coutinho MP, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero on progress to meet carbon reduction targets.

Peers will be asking questions on Wednesday about appointments to the Post Office board.


Global economy watch

All eyes will be on China following the collapse of Evergrande and the latest inflation figures will get extra scrutiny as a result. The UK will be publishing PMI data – giving another pointer on the chancellor’s plans and general election dates.


In case you missed it

The bombshell report on future population growth. Public services are facing huge demand and tackling small boats is dwarfed by the task ahead.

The ONS revealed: The UK population, which was estimated to be 67.0 million in mid-2021, is projected to rise by 6.6 million to 73.7 million over the next 15 years to mid-2036 (a 9.9% increase).

See the report.

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