The actual figure will be published by the Department of Health only after the end of the general election ‘purdah’ period, creating a delay that has been criticised by doctors.
Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents trusts, said while a deficit in the predicted range would exceed the £580m target, it would fall well below last year’s deficit of £2.45bn.
He said trusts had “reversed the runaway deficits of the last three years and brought them much lower”, and the final 2016-17 figure will be below the £800m contingency retained by clinical commissioning groups, which was allocated at the beginning of the year to cover providers’ deficits.
“We estimate trusts have recovered more than two thirds of that deterioration in the last three months”, he said. “That is an impressive achievement.”
Trusts had found cost improvement gains of more than £3.3bn despite seven years of being expected to seek significant productivity and efficiency gains.
Hopson said: “There are few, if any, other healthcare systems where providers are delivering this level of gain over such an extended period.”
Much of this saving had come from reduced spending on agency and temporary staff.
Doctors’ body the British Medical Association (BMA) criticised the government for not publishing trust deficit figure until after the general election.
BMA council chair Mark Porter said the government was “refusing to face up to the funding crisis that has put the NHS at breaking point”.
He added: “Doctors, nurses and patients will now not be allowed to see the depth of the current funding crisis before the general election.
“Delaying the release of the figures won’t magically solve the very real problems our health service is facing.”
The Department of Health said it was not able to permitted the figures during the purdah restrictions on what public bodies may say in an election period.
