It’s called Europe and, despite David Cameron’s best efforts, the issue is proving toxic for the Conservatives and wider Westminster politics
The defection of Tory MP Douglas Carswell to Ukip has brought to life once again the power of Europe to shake up politics in the UK. The issue has convulsed Labour over many years. But in recent decades Europe has caused far more problems for the Conservatives. That looks set to continue.
Of course, what has been going on in Clacton is not just about Europe. Ukip is partly about wanting to go back 20 or 30 years in time to a period when things were ‘better’: kids stood up in class, there were fewer foreign accents around, Britain sent in gunboats and people cared.
That’s why it’s a threat to Labour too. Ed Miliband has tried to end suspicions that Labour is soft on immigration, risking schisms on his own side in the process. But we can expect Conservative election guru Lynton Crosby to up the ante as May 2015 looms.
David Cameron has tried to keep the Tories away from the toxic issue of Europe because, historically, all they have ever got out of it is intra-party warfare and the image of a split party. And this on an issue that never comes high up the list of public concerns.
He has failed because it is the issue on which deep divisions on the Tory side about what kind of country and economic policies they want all come together. The Conservative party these days is a very broad church indeed.
The out-and-out free marketeers hate what is essentially the Christian Democrat approach to government that prevails in most of Europe – one that likes consensus, social protection and elements of corporatism. For them, the creation of a single market with no trade barriers is not enough of a prize. The times when they were willing to try to work within the EU to influence its agenda, and get ‘our’ people into key positions, have long gone.
Even the surprisingly powerful job that Cameron nominee Lord Hill has been given by EU Commission boss Jean-Claude Junker is unlikely to appease them. They prefer the rawer capitalism and energy of the US or Hong Kong and China to the complex world of negotiation with 27 partners.
The more one-nation Conservatism that people like Kenneth Clarke, Michael Heseltine or Damien Green represent, is warmer towards Europe per se – but also believes in industrial policy, a social side to the single market and sees a powerful EU bloc as being crucial to Britain’s future strength on the international stage.
Keeping these factions quiet has been a great achievement of Cameron’s. But it has failed to last the rigours of government. For a while the pro-European stance of their Liberal Democrat coalition partners meant that the antis just had to swallow it. Then they got more uppity and forced Cameron into increasingly anti-European moves, including promising a referendum in 2017. Now, with the additional threat from Ukip to some MPs’ continued presence in the Commons, many are not prepared to keep quiet any more.
Will this be costly at the polls? At the time of writing the Clacton byelection result still awaits us. And the Scotland debate has certainly upped the profile of sovereignty issues. All of which raises doubts about the direction of Tory policy and Cameron’s ability to keep the party together.
Any more anti EU-speak to keep backbenchers happy will also start to alienate business, a real risk. Cameron must hope that the nearness of the general election will instil party discipline. But if the increasingly awkward squad know he is rattled, they will demand more. There’s much more trouble to come.
Dan Corry is the chief executive of New Philanthropy Capital and a former adviser to No 10 and the Treasury
This opinion piece was first published in the October edition of Public Finance magazine
