The recent GCSE grading controversy is the latest in a series of calamities afflicting the Welsh Government. Yet criticism from the public, media and unions has been muted suggesting that we need a more inquiring attitude in Wales
Vivienne Russell’s article (The Silk Road, Public Finance, April) discussed differing views on the merits of extending devolution to Wales. One of the main arguments against further devolution, discussed in the article, is that the Welsh Assembly and Welsh Government have performed poorly over the past 15 years regarding the public services already devolved, and that improvements should be seen before further devolution is considered.
A specific aspect concerns the fiasco over school examinations. This came about following the publication of the results of the second unit of a new modularised GCSE paper in English language issued by the Welsh examinations board, the Welsh Joint Education Committee (WJEC). The alarm was raised by head teachers who described shock at how poor were the published results from exams taken in January this year, with some schools expecting 60%-70% of their pupils to get a C grade or better and finding only 27% actually did so.
There were also many individual examples of children achieving a result three to four grades lower than that predicted for them. Not surprisingly, this created a furore among parents, teachers and pupils. Thus, this is not just a bureaucratic issue – it affects the lives of thousands of young people. GCSE English is also the cornerstone for judging overall GCSE performance for schools, along with GCSE Mathematics.
The backdrop to the fiasco is the inadequate state of the Welsh schools system for the past 15 years (and more) – and something akin to sheer panic. The situation can be described in terms of poor PISA scores, failing LEAs, sharply increasing numbers of schools in special measures, a lack of confidence in teacher assessment practices (with lower than average GCSE results compared to England) and a school curriculum some would say over-burdened with experiments in social engineering at the expense of educational attainment. That Welsh schools are also comparatively underfunded compared with the rest of the UK is a matter beyond dispute.
This was not the first exam controversy. Back in August 2012 the Welsh Education Minister Leighton Andrews commissioned a review into the performance of candidates in Wales studying for a GCSE in English Language. As a result of the review, Andrews ordered WJEC to remark the English Language papers of all Welsh entrants because he felt that thousands of pupils had been the victims of an ‘injustice’.
In that instance, the WJEC said it had complied with a requirement from exams regulators in England and Wales to make the boundary between grades C and D ‘more severe’. Some accused the Welsh Government of trying to disguise the lower performance of Welsh pupils compared to English pupils in taking the same WJEC examinations.
This all started with the hawkish English Education Secretary, Michael Gove, who proposed a raft of reforms to the school examination systems in England including the use of a single examination (the English Baccalaureate) for GCSE examinations in England. Gove’s proposed reforms caused turmoil and furore, in equal measure in Wales, particularly in relation to the proposed abolition of GCSEs. The Welsh education minister described it as a ‘backwards step’ and a ‘solution designed for the 20th Century’.
Several people warned against a ‘go it alone’ strategy for Wales, since it was vital that Welsh qualifications were not seen as ‘second rate’ by English universities and employers with the consequent negative impact on young people in Wales.
Nevertheless, the Welsh Government put forward a number of changes designed to improve and strengthen the Welsh GCSE concept. In 2012 general reform was also announced for all Wales-based qualifications for 14-19-year-olds following a national review. The problems of 2014 relate directly to the 2012 decisions.
It was, appropriately, on April Fool’s Day 2014 that the Welsh Government published the findings of its report into this year’s controversy. This followed an earlier report in March by the WJEC, which concluded that with the exception of one examiner there was no evidence to suggest that WJEC did not follow correct procedures and so no comprehensive remarking exercise was needed. The Welsh Government’s feverishly produced report in no way sheds light on the fiasco for a number of reasons discussed below:
Statistical analysis
The report discusses a number of causal factors for the sharp drop in examination performance including: early entry and over-estimation of grades by teachers. However, there is little point in just suggesting causal factors for the results unless you can pin down, by statistical analysis, the contribution of each causal factor. Otherwise all you are doing is muddying what is already dark water.
This analysis has not been done and presumably never will be. The WJEC and the Welsh Government both have an interest in no more questions being asked of their roles in the incompetence that has affected Welsh schools once more.
Visits to schools
A government inquiry team made visits to 32 schools over a four-day period. This is clearly a Herculean effort, but we have no overall summary of what were the responses to questions asked, the discussions held and the views of the schools. The civil servants did the usual job of elegant summarising.
How much depth did the investigators go into with such a broad and hurried sweep? While we don’t expect the views of individual schools to be released, a more comprehensive summary of the discussions would have provided greater transparency.
Lastly, why was the criticism from the schools concerning the lack of WJEC support minimised in the report when it was clearly a strong issue for schools? We have the exam board roundly rubbished by its schools and yet all the minister and WJEC conclude is that a ‘few lessons need to be learned’.
The fractured relationship between Government and WJEC
Information obtained under Freedom of Information has clarified the deteriorating relationship since 2012 between the Welsh government and WJEC. The situation reached its nadir after the publication of the GCSE results of 2012. It is no exaggeration to characterise the relationship between the minister at that time and the chief executive of WJEC as very poor.
GCSE war broke out that late summer not just between Wales and England. The evening before the January 2014 unit’s results became public, the WJEC pinned the blame squarely on government haste in changing the exam specification. This is what their email said: ‘Outcomes for foundation tier candidates dropped compared with the previous specification and examiners felt that this was due to the increased demand of the new specification which had been requested by Welsh Government (our italics).’
Culpability and accountability
On the assumption that everyone agrees that this fiasco is a consequence of human actions and not natural forces, then the report sheds little light about who was at fault and how things might have been done differently. One is left with a feeling that everyone and yet no one is to blame, which is bizarre because the evidence suggests that the schools have little culpability in this area. The fault lies somewhere on the axis between WJEC and the Welsh Government.
Welsh school standards
If, as the report seems to suggest, the latest GCSE English results are regarded as broadly correct, where does this leave the Welsh schools system in its key priority of literacy? One purpose of introducing revised GCSEs was presumably to set a more robust challenge and higher standards for Welsh pupils that could be seen as comparable with the revamped examinations in England.
Do these latest results mean then that Welsh pupils are completely ‘off the pace’ in relation to tougher GCSEs? If this is the case, what on earth do we do about it?
The Welsh Government cannot have it both ways. Either the examination system is flawed but the pupils are performing satisfactorily or the examination system is not flawed and hence the problem must lie with the children and teachers.
Future actions
The Welsh Government report incorporates an action plan covering intermediate and longer-term actions for Welsh Government, WJEC and consortia. It looks that the bulk of these actions places, by far and away, the biggest burden on WJEC.
The question to be asked is whether WJEC, as currently organised, has the capacity and capability to meet these challenges in a meaningful manner while at the same time dealing with a wide range of other issues. It could be another terrible summer for WJEC. Its fitness for purpose is in jeopardy.
What we have described above is an example of systemic failure by the Welsh Government. This is not the first case of such failure and probably won’t be the last.
However, the report on the GCSE fiasco just cannot be regarded as independent and unbiased. It has been prepared by the Welsh Government itself even though the Welsh Government is itself a party involved in the controversy. It is rather as if there were three possible defendants in the dock (the Welsh Government, WJEC and schools) but one of the defendants is also the judge and jury. Hence, the Welsh Government, potentially one of the culpable partners, is investigating itself.
Furthermore, the statistical analysis undertaken for the report has not been signed off by the Welsh Government’s own statistical unit and so there must be some doubt about the veracity of the figures shown.
What is hard to understand is the way in which the findings of the Welsh Government report seem to have been accepted by the Welsh public with hardly a murmur of dissent. Given that 90% of candidates have been reported as opting for a June re-sit, this is depressing apathy.
Moreover, a report that is deeply flawed and severely lacking in independence was just accepted by a compliant Welsh media. The teaching unions in Wales, who are not always averse to protest or even industrial action on matters like, pay, pensions or curriculum content, have been largely silent about the report and seem to have accepted the findings that nothing really went wrong. The unions that represent head teachers, received the minister’s review and statement almost perfunctorily.
In France, we would probably have seen thousands of pupils (and their parents), who have been done down by this fiasco, marching on the streets, but we have heard little continuing protest, apart from schools seeking compensation for the costs of re-sits.
As a result, there must be some concern about the nature of Welsh civil society. A serially incompetent Welsh Government, largely one party in nature, seems to be able to get away with repeated calamity with hardly any dissenting protest or electoral punishment.
The Greek philosopher Plato commenting on politicians warned that ‘those who seek power are not worthy of that power’. We need a bit of that more inquiring attitude in Wales. Otherwise, our disgruntled but voiceless 15-year-olds will grow up with even more inertia than their parents and schools are now showing.
Malcolm Prowle is professor of business performance at Nottingham Business School but resides in Wales. Terry Mackie is director of educational consultancy EmpathiCymru and a former head of school improvement and inclusion for Newport Council. A fuller analysis of the failings of the Welsh Government report can be obtained by contacting Malcolm Prowle on [email protected]
