To suggest that pensioners determine elections in the UK is simply nonsense. The all-powerful ‘grey vote’ has been exaggerated – older people may be more likely to vote but there are fewer of them around
For so-called ‘generational jihadists’, higher voting rates among pensioners are held up as indisputable evidence of the political power of the ‘grey vote’. In the imagination of many commentators, higher election turnouts among the retired mean politicians fear nothing more than the wrath of the pensioner population.
This month we have seen David Cameron kick-off the 2014 political season with a commitment from the Conservative Party to continue increasing the state pension via the ‘triple-lock’ formula. This was immediately followed by a wave of commentary highlighting the tight grip that the ‘grey vote’ has on British politics.
Unfortunately, the notion of an all-powerful ‘grey vote’ that can decide the fate of governments is basically nonsense.
It is certainly true that voter turnout is – marginally – higher among those aged 65 and over. According to Ipsos Mori, at the last election 76% of the 65+ age-group turned out to mark their cross on a ballot paper. This is high, but really not that much higher than, for example, the 66% rate of turnout among the 35-44 age-group.
The real issue is low turnout among under-35s, and especially, the 18-24 age-group. Pensioners are only slightly more likely to vote than middle-aged adults, but the young are far less likely to vote than other age-groups.
This is only half the story about the ‘grey vote’ myth. The key point is this: while the 65+ are most likely to vote, there are simply fewer of them around.
To illustrate this point, let’s assume that turnout by age-group in the 2015 general election remains the same as that found by Ipsos Mori in the 2010 election. Let’s then apply these turnout rates to Office for National Statistics projections of the number of people in each age-group in 2015. We can then estimate and rank how many votes will be cast in 2015 by age-group:
- 45-54 years: 6,290,000 votes
- 35-44 years: 5,370,000 votes
- 55-64 years: 5,360,000 votes
- 25-34 years: 5,000,000 votes
- 65-74 years: 4,760,000 votes
- 75-84 years, 2,860,000 votes
- 18-24 years: 2,560,000 votes
Looked at this way, the notion of all-powerful ‘grey vote’ that determines the outcomes of British politics is shown to be nonsense.
Yes, pensioners are marginally more likely to vote, but any party that thought it could buy its way into government through prioritising older people over all others might quickly find themselves in opposition.
For the 2014 Conservative Party under attack from UKIP, it clearly makes sense to announce some totemic commitments to older voters. Conservative voters are typically older, and it is reportedly retired Tory voters who are currently peeling off in greatest number to UKIP.
However, this very targeted measure by one party toward one group of their core vote does not prove the existence of an all-powerful grey-lobby strangling British politics, as many commentators would seem to think.
Looking at the numbers above, it is clear that targeting policies at younger age-groups could be just as effective measured in votes cast than targeting the 65+. For example, few people under 35 in the UK are not angry at the cost of housing. Popular, targeted policies on housing could be electoral gold. As it happens, the Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer would seem to think so, given the Treasury’s much-maligned ‘Help to Buy’ scheme.
Of course, all of this analysis implies another assumption underpinning the great ‘grey vote’ myth: that voters are rational, utility-maximisers whose votes are wholly or mostly determined by their narrow self-interest.
This is clearly not the case. For example, many of those most vexed by young families stuck in the private rented sector are grandparents who want their grandchildren to have a stable home. And self-interest sometimes works in strange ways: many young people support a decent, universal state pension because that is what they want when they eventually retire, as well as the confidence that it will ‘pay to save’ in a private pension.
In current political debate, it seems any policy affecting retirees is now viewed as evidence of the UK’s powerful ‘grey vote’. This is unlikely to change any time soon, but even a cursory glance at the numbers shows it to be a myth.
James Lloyd is director of the Strategic Society Centre
