There is now a contagious disease that anyone can catch – although political commentators are most at risk. It leaves the afflicted prone to making doom-laden predictions about population ageing and unable to think logically about the future costs of society
It’s an increasingly virulent and contagious condition, which now merits a name: age hysteria.
People displaying age hysteria are easy to identify, particularly around the time the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its long-term fiscal projections.
A typical case of age hysteria will see an individual point to the very long-term effects of population ageing on public expenditure, often with the use of a graph, and then see them make a succession of increasingly fatalistic declarations, for example: we can’t afford an ageing society; public services in the UK are unaffordable; the state is bankrupt; we’re all doomed.
Incidences of age hysteria are increasingly being found among political commentators in the press, among think tanks, politicians and on the television.
Some individuals are more susceptible to infection with age hysteria than others. For example, those who have long called for the abolition of universal free health provision and privatisation of the NHS are particularly prone to age hysteria, declaring that such outcomes are now wholly inevitable because of an ageing population.
Age hysteria affects sufferers in a variety of other ways, besides fatalistic declarations. Sufferers frequently experience wantonly myopic, narrow vision. For example, despite the unprecedented, unearned and untaxed property wealth of older cohorts, some sufferers find themselves incapable of recognising that households could contribute such wealth toward the sustainability of age-related public spending.
More generally, age hysteria is often associated with a general decline in cognitive functioning and logical reasoning. For example, in highlighting the effects of population ageing on health and social care expenditure in 2060, sufferers from age hysteria struggle to compute that the only thing that can be said with certainty about health and care services in 2060 – when today’s 20-somethings are in their 70s – is that the design and provision of such services will look absolutely nothing like they do today.
So what should you do if you encounter a case of age hysteria? It is advisable to speak slowly, calmly and respectfully, and to gently encourage sufferers to think about the policy choices that future governments will be able to make in response to population ageing. A good starting point is to highlight the option of raising the state pension age.
As a second stage, highlight the role of technology and personalised medicine in determining the future cost of health and social care services. Then talk about how building more homes and reining in private landlords could slash life-course housing costs over the next few decades, allowing individuals to redouble their pension contributions.
Given demographic trends, age hysteria may now be here to stay. However, through calm reflection and logical reasoning, I believe we can bring this treatable, manageable condition under control.
James Lloyd is director of the Strategic Society Centre
