Nationalists don’t want a European Union referendum to distract from their referendum on leaving the UK; unionists aren’t happy either
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage’s chaotic visit to Scotland has emphasised the growing divergence of political culture north and south of the border. Farage wasn’t booed because he was English, but because of his policies on immigration, gay marriage and Europe – hence the cries of ‘racist’ and ‘homophobic scum’.
There is no excuse in a democracy for shouting at or threatening people just because you disagree with them. But Farage’s claim that he was a victim of racial abuse because of his English nationality is not justified, as the demo’s organisers, Radical Scotland, clarified.
The Scottish National Party does not tolerate racial abuse, whether Asian, Irish, English or Polish. Scotland has welcomed immigration from countries in Eastern Europe and beyond because its ageing population means there is a shortage of young workers. Both the SNP First Minister, Alex Salmond, and his Labour predecessor, Jack McConnell, argued for more immigration, not less. It is the same with Europe, which is supported by all the main Scottish parties except the Conservatives and Ukip, both of which are largely irrelevant in Scotland because of their minimal representation.
But Europe is set to dominate Scottish politics in the referendum year, as the European elections of May 2014 will be held only four months before the Scottish independence referendum. Ukip is expected to do well in the Euro elections in England, which emboldens Conservative Eurosceptics in their demands for a cast-iron guarantee of a referendum on withdrawal from Europe. Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to ratify his renegotiation of the terms of British membership.
Labour’s Ed Miliband and the Liberal Democrats have also promised a referendum if there are any substantial changes in Britain’s relations with Europe, and they will be under equal pressure to guarantee an in/out vote in the 2015 UK general election.
How will this affect the independence referendum? Well, the truth is, no one really knows. The nationalists don’t want a referendum on leaving the European Union distracting attention from their referendum on leaving the UK. The unionists aren’t happy either. They’ve been warning Scots not to vote Yes to independence in case an independent Scotland is forced to leave the EU. Now it looks as if staying in the UK could lead to Scotland leaving Europe.
Some Scots will vote Yes because they no longer wish to live in a UK that is dancing to the tune of Nigel Farage. Others might decide they can’t make a sensible decision on Europe if they don’t know whether the UK will still be there in a few years’ time. It is also not clear that Scots have a choice of staying in the EU if the UK leaves because the SNP say they want to remain in the single-UK currency zone, not the eurozone.
The constitutional expert, Alan Trench, has even suggested there may be a case for postponing the Scottish referendum until the issue of British EU membership is resolved. But no one wants to do that.
There are always reasons to postpone referendums, and the Scottish one has already been delayed for two and a half years since the SNP’s election victory in 2011. Ironically, the very people who were demanding an early independence referendum – such as Cameron – are now arguing for a delay in the Europe referendum, which Tory backbenchers want right away.
What a situation. You wait for years for a referendum, and suddenly two come at once. But pity the voters who have to make sense of them.
Iain Macwhirter is political commentator on the Sunday Herald
