Councils are clearly facing a difficult time, but CIPFA’s chief executive suggests that good financial progress has been made and there is reason for cautious optimism
This year’s CIPFA Local Government Budget Survey, published today, provides a fascinating commentary on how the sector, which has borne some of the deepest cuts, is managing through austerity.
On first viewing, the story is not for the faint-hearted or squeamish. Forty per cent of respondents are likely to set budgets that reflect real-terms reductions in total spending, year on year, in the range 5% to 9.9%. In many cases that must translate to cuts in services. Further job losses are anticipated at all levels in organisations, in both support functions and front-line services. And, looking beyond the immediate horizon, chief finance officers (CFOs) are losing sleep about the challenges looming in 2013/14.
However, those who study these results carefully and review them in a considered context may yet draw relatively optimistic conclusions. Anecdotally, we know that most authorities appear to be on course to deliver 2011/12 programmes successfully. CFOs are also relatively upbeat about delivery of 2012/13 budgets – in both financial and service terms. Although 2013/14 looks very daunting, it is still 12 months away – valuable time in which detailed planning may yet manage down risk and inspire increased confidence.
At service level too we can see clear patterns which suggest careful consideration of priorities. Capital investment schemes and economic regeneration budgets are relatively protected, as are highly sensitive front-line activities like children’s services. Deeper cuts are likely in support functions and leisure and cultural services. Crude salami slicing this ain’t!
To bring a really informed judgement to the picture painted by this survey we have to go back to our definition of success. Two years into an unprecedented period of austerity, what did we expect to see?
Viewed in this context these latest results do seem to paint a pretty positive picture. Councils are delivering promised savings and fronting up to the challenge to plan for still more. Tough decisions are being taken. No-one is hiding under the bed clothes. Albeit perhaps with heavy hearts, local government is getting on and doing what needs to be done.
Councils are certainly not out of the woods, of course and 2013/14 looks particularly daunting as system reforms are overlaid on further tranches of funding reductions. But so far so good. Progress to date looks remarkably positive to me and a basis for cautious optimism going forward.
Steve Freer is the chief executive of CIPFA
