Whatever options are included in the 2014 independence referendum, the Union as we know it is unlikely to survive
What will be the outcome of the independence referendum now scheduled to take place in autumn 2014? Is the Union finished after 300 years? Will the Scottish National Party persuade Scots that their nation would be better off standing on its own feet, living off its wits, in the global market?
What is beyond doubt is that this will be a close fought contest, and that the decision will have to be made in Scotland, by Scots. Any further attempts to impose timetables or to attach conditions will be counter-productive to the unionist cause. A great deal can happen in the next 1,000 days – but I think the chances of the Union surviving in its present form are remote. However, this does not necessarily mean that the Scots will vote ‘Yes’ to independence.
The Scots are actually rather conservative, with a small ‘c’, and don’t do revolution. They’ve had a pretty bloody history, these past 1,000 years, and they have seen where an excess of national zeal can lead. Culloden and Flodden are as much part of national consciousness as Bannockburn and Stirling Bridge.
So independence, to win the hearts and minds, would have to be presented as a natural progression, a seamless transition from devolution to full self-government. It is difficult to envisage such a momentous event as the break-up of Britain happening in this way.
This is why some people believe that the SNP leader, First Minister Alex Salmond, is hoping to get a second-best option on the ballot paper along the lines of what is called ‘devolution max’. Essentially, this means a quasi-federal Holyrood raising in tax the money it spends, while sending a contribution to Westminster for common services such as defence and foreign affairs.
Now, in recent weeks a surprising number of Conservatives, such as Tory MEP Daniel Hannan and former leadership candidate Michael Portillo have declared their support for this compromise, as have commentators such as Simon Jenkins of the Guardian. The Liberal Democrats agree and have just set up a commission under Sir Menzies Campbell to look at how to implement this form of federalism.
Devolution max is also favoured by a growing number of Labour politicians in Scotland, including the former first minister, Henry McLeish, and the former UK minister, Malcolm Chisholm.
A growing number of English voters – more than 60% in some polls – also appear to support the idea of requiring Scotland to ‘pay its way’. Conservative England, it seems, is increasingly reluctant to underwrite a social democratic Scotland. No more Barnett Formula or block grant. If Scots want to keep free tuition fees, free personal care and other cherished social policies, they will have to be seen to finance them out of their own national resources.
For their part, a majority of Scottish voters also say they want a Parliament with greater powers. This leaves Salmond in a curious position. He wants independence, of course. But he would not be averse to having a federal halfway house. And it appears that the door is already wide open for this, even though the option might not appear on the referendum ballot paper.
So, although Scots voters will probably reject formal independence in 2014, by then the country might already be on the road to a new constitutional relationship with England – which could look rather like independence. Since there is little enthusiasm for setting up a separate English Parliament in London, this will inevitably be a unilateral federalism, with Scotland taking control of its own affairs but keeping the currency, the Queen and a common foreign and defence policy. Either way, the old Union will be no more.
