So we’re not ‘all in this together’ after all. According to the latest British Social Attitudes survey, the public is becoming increasingly individualistic, intolerant of the poor and unwilling to pay taxes to fund services.
This might explain the response to the chancellor’s Autumn Statement. George Osborne promised an extra two years of austerity, with lower growth, higher unemployment and increased debt.
Despite this, his poll ratings have either held firm or increased. In contrast, there appeared to be little sympathy for public servants who faced further attacks on their job prospects, pensions and pay.
Osborne confirmed there will be 710,000 public sector job losses by 2017, a 1% pay increase when the current freeze ends and a possible dilution of the Tupe regulations that protect employees transferring to private companies.
And, of course, the coalition’s pension reform plans are still progressing even after almost 2 million civil servants, head teachers, NHS staff and council workers took part in a one-day strike (see Colin Talbot’s January cover feature).
All the evidence suggests that the public accepts the hard line and, for now at least, supports the coalition’s attempt to eliminate the structural deficit within five years.
Politically, the argument has been won. It’s clearly difficult to suggest that the solution to too much borrowing is more borrowing. And yet, there is still an economic case to be made for Plan B.
As we move into the New Year, the private sector-led recovery predicted by Osborne looks a long way off. Without a fiscal boost we could easily slip back into recession in 2012.
The Office for Budget Responsibility itself admits that the chances of this happening are one in three. And this analysis optimistically assumes no deepening of the eurozone crisis.
In fact, much of the public backing for fiscal rectitude is based on fear for the future, rather than wholehearted support. Most of the cuts have yet to be implemented and the real impact might not be felt for some time.
The government will need to keep its options open as events take shape. By the time of the March 21 Budget, Osborne might have to review his approach – even if it’s labelled Plan A+ rather than B.
It’s hard to fully comprehend what lies ahead for us in 2012 and beyond. Needless to say, it will be a difficult and divisive year.
Public servants, as ever, will do their utmost in trying times. We wish all our readers the best of luck with that tough task in the year ahead.
