Were it not for Scotland, Ed Miliband might have been able to claim to have had a good night on Thursday. As it is, the extraordinary SNP surge overshadowed some genuinely impressive achievements: gaining 30 seats in Cardiff (providing a lesson in the benefits of coalition for the larger party), routing the Lib Dems in cities like Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham, Hull and Stoke, winning back Gravesham and good results in places like Telford and Luton. Yet Labour also lost ground in key seats like Gloucester and Dartford and it has a way to go before it is again a significant player in many Southern councils. The fact that one cannot say it was a good night for Labour is a measure of the uphill struggle that Miliband still faces.
For he is the leader of the party in the whole of Britain, not just England; and he wasn’t able to accept credit for Cardiff without also accepting the embarrassment of Edinburgh. He is right now to work to ensure that there is a root and branch reorganisation of the Scottish Labour Party, with the persuasion of a heavy hitter to position him or herself to do an Alex Salmond on the whole Scottish Labour party.
After all, Salmond had the confidence to stick his name on every Scottish ballot paper.
In England, this is a better result than it might seem, because Labour has once again become the largest party in votes cast (at least on the BBC’s figures). This is important with the Tory plans to reduce the number of MPs still set to be introduced despite the failure of AV – there’s something the Lib Dems should oppose as they start to ‘shout louder’. It is a mark of the ineffectiveness of Nick Clegg that he didn’t insist that the two measures were dependent on each other, thus forcing Cameron and crew to restrain themselves over their No enthusiasm. The Liberal Democrats are facing potential revolts over key coalition policies which will strain the partnership, and should certainly scupper Andrew Lansley’s barmy NHS plans (as well as restoring those waiting time targets that had been a huge success for patients), force speedier Lords reform and turn the pupil premium in schools into a meaningful incentive to attract poorer students.
And while the Tories will be pleased to have gained seats and a few councils thanks to their coalition partners, they may find that this is the last time they can feel so smug: as Lib Dem councillors disappear, voter anger will find a new home. Nevertheless, no-one can dispute that David Cameron played a blinder with his extraordinary sanctioning of personal attacks on Clegg in the AV campaign and that he has been greatly strengthened by a good showing in the council elections and in Wales.
For Labour, it is vital that the party does more than sort out Scotland. The extra councillors should help consolidate the party organisation. But Miliband needs to show some policy mettle too, and not wait until his various reviews have pronounced. Voters don’t know what he stands for, and he needs to pick some strong symbolic policies on which to take a stand: that might mean outpacing the Tories where their policies are potentially popular, like on academies and free schools, and providing radical alternatives where they are getting it wrong, including on crime and prisons. He should not leave it to the Lib Dems take the initiative on constitutional reform, but he needs a clear and credible economic and social policy that appeals to working class and Middle England voters alike. Of course, he should not unveil all – or even most – of his policies now, but he does need to show where he stands. Otherwise it will be difficult to turn last night’s genuine gains into an election winning strategy for 2015 – or before.
Conor Ryan is a political commentator and former No 10 adviser. This post first appeared on his blog
