Calm before the storm, by Iain Macwhirter

4 Feb 10
IAIN MACWHIRTER | Apart from the tennis, things have gone quiet in Scotland as attention turns to what might happen in Westminster

Apart from the tennis, things have gone quiet in Scotland as attention turns to what might happen in Westminster

An atmosphere of uncharacteristic calm has descended on the Scottish Parliament in recent weeks. It’s been the quietest spell in terms of news stories since the election of the Scottish National Party minority government in 2007. The biggest row at First Minister’s Question Time recently has been about the designation of footpaths over the Queen’s Balmoral Estate. Journalists have been wandering around disconsolate, kicking their heels and talking endlessly about Andy Murray’s backhand.

Why this hiatus? Is it just a very long hangover from New Year revelries? Well, for one thing, there’s not a lot of legislation around right now – not least because the government has delayed its Bill for the referendum on independence. First Minister Alex Salmond probably senses that there is little stomach right now in Scotland for radical constitutional change. There was a rumour that the opposition parties might gang up on the SNP administration and vote down its budget, but that prospect is fading.

The cause of the pause is simple. For the first time since the last Holyrood elections – indeed for the first time in ten years – the focus of political attention in Scotland has switched to Westminster, and the outcome of the general election in May. There is a growing realisation that there’s going to be a very big change in relationships between Scotland and London if and when the Conservatives, under David Cameron, win that general election – though no-one knows quite what.

This is not because anyone is really expecting a great Conservative revival in Scotland – except the Scottish Tories who say that they will get 11 Scottish MPs out of 59 in the May election. Right now they have only one and the polls suggest that they might only double their representation.

Scotland remains largely immune to the appeal of Cameron Conservatism, even as Scots have become bitterly disillusioned with their former favourite son, Gordon Brown. A sign of the times is that Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, has already been arguing that the lack of Tory MPs in Scotland will not in any way undermine the ‘mandate’ of a Conservative government in Westminster to rule in Scotland.

The SNP of course sees things differently. It is in power in the devolved Parliament in Edinburgh and Salmond would undoubtedly argue – if the Tories win in Westminster – that Cameron did not have the authority or legitimacy in Scotland to push through deep cuts in public spending, or scrap the Barnett Formula. In a real sense, it is back to 1987, when the Scottish Tories under Margaret Thatcher were decisively rejected in a general election. It was argued that she did not have a ‘mandate’ to introduce the poll tax or community charge.

It all depends, of course, on how the Conservatives handle the public spending squeeze. Most Scots accept that some reduction in spending is inevitable. However, if it is inflicted disproportionately in Scotland, or if there appears to be triumphalism on the Tory benches at Westminster, then there could be a very bitter row. Not only the SNP, but also the Scottish Labour Party, will be in the business of opposing any ‘London Tory’ attempt to inflict savage cuts on Scotland. Labour realises that if it is to defeat the SNP at the next Scottish parliamentary elections in 2011, it will have to be seen to stand up for Scotland.

The new variable geometry of the devolved UK state will require subtle governance on Cameron’s part. He might have to curb those English Tories who want Scottish representation cut in Westminster in answer to the West Lothian Question. Formally, he might have the mandate in Scotland, but if he has any sense, he will handle relations with extreme care. Or things could get very lively in Holyrood again.

Iain Macwhirter is political commentator on the Sunday Herald

Did you enjoy this article?

AddToAny

Top