Who are the good guys? For the protagonists in The Road – the movie based on Cormac McCarthy’s dystopian novel – it’s a life and death question.
Sorting out the human flesh-eaters from the more friendly types has a direct bearing on their chances of survival.
Our times might be a tad less grim. But distinguishing friend from foe is still a daunting challenge – particularly for public servants staring into the abyss of sub-zero spending. This week the choice got even harder, as the clear water between the parties’ plans to tackle a £178bn deficit became extremely muddied.
Tory pledges of faster, deeper spending cuts were dumped when David Cameron said there would be no ‘swingeing’ or even ‘particularly extensive’ cuts under his watch in 2010/11. George Osborne has replaced macho boasts about early austerity measures – and dire warnings of investors taking fright – with a ‘new economic model’ that focuses on growth.
So what are we to make of this U-turn? Government ministers have, predictably enough, ridiculed the Opposition’s economic literacy, likening Cameron and Osborne to ‘Laurel and Hardy’. Psephologists are poring over the narrowing polls, and asking whether the Tories’ softer line is a panic response, or a cunning attempt at political triangulation.
Either way, as Peter Riddell notes (see cover feature on pages 20–23), the shift is in line with reality. The fragile state of the recovery – and fears of a ‘double-dip’ – have made many economists ultra-cautious about recommending additional short-term spending cuts or tax rises.
In its annual Green Budget, launched this week, the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned against any extra fiscal tightening in 2010, while calling for ‘more ambitious’ belt-tightening by 2015/16. This delayed-pain approach was echoed by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.
But pain there will surely be. The Green Budget predicts a cumulative real cut in Whitehall spending of 11.4% over the next five-year Parliament. Even a ’protected’ area like the NHS faces its tightest squeeze in 60 years (see page 6).
So, now that Tory high command has belatedly joined the consensus on spending, how can voters tell the difference between two sets of good guys, both claiming their road to recovery won’t hurt?
Some candour about what the future holds for public services, department by department, would help. Hiding behind the fog of economic uncertainty just won’t do.
Darling and Osborne please note.
