In politics, as in comedy, timing is everything. So the news that Britain might be out of recession should have provided a favourable backdrop for the chancellor’s Callaghan lecture this week.
It didn’t quite work out like that. Alistair Darling won grudging praise for asserting himself over the PM – and presenting a more nuanced version of the Labour-spending-good/Tory-cuts-bad mantra.
But David Cameron made a much bigger splash with his crowd-pleasing promise to cut the number of MPs and raise the price of beer and salads in the Commons canteen.
As the Conservative leader admits, with the UK facing a ballooning £175bn deficit, these measures amount to little more than a pinprick. Even so, his willingness to repeatedly utter the ‘cuts’ word – as against the chancellor’s obfuscations – has been widely applauded.
Darling’s reasoned arguments for an ‘enabling’ state, and for maintaining the fiscal stimulus to avoid choking off recovery, barely got a look-in.
It’s a similar picture over the pond, where President Barack Obama’s modest plans to reform the health care system have come up against vocal opposition.
Early consensual support for the presidential change programme has given way to a vitriolic NHS-bashing campaign (see Ruth Thorlby's feature, 'Born in the USA').
Here and in the US, the political weather is being made by deep and growing mistrust of big government; something the more astute members of Gordon Brown’s Cabinet have woken up to.
Hence the focus on making ‘clear, hard choices’ on spending, and Darling’s pledge to halve the deficit. Further finessing of this pre-election line is expected in a speech from Lord Mandelson, which promises to draw out the ideological distinctions between Labour and Tory cost savings.
A root-and-branch Treasury efficiency review is being prepared ahead of the Pre-Budget Report, and ever more radical steps considered to bring down borrowing (see Tony Travers’ blog, 'Getting to the meat of the cuts issue').
All this is music to the ears of the ratings agencies, which had threatened to downgrade UK PLC’s triple-A credit rating. But the improvement in economic fortunes brings a new political problem in its wake.
With economists claiming the recovery has started, the government’s critics say the clock is ticking on Darling’s pledge to cut the deficit – and are demanding to know why he still plans to spend an extra £30bn next year.
Which is the trouble when a debate about spending comes down not to whether to cut, but when.
