As former Swedish prime minister Göran Persson told the annual CIPFA conference in Harrogate this week, it’s easy to get elected; what’s difficult is to get re-elected.
That’s the dilemma facing the UK’s coalition government. David Cameron and his Liberal Democrat partners are enjoying a post-election honeymoon, but what happens when the cuts start to bite?
Cameron doesn’t want to be a one-term wonder, and needs to build a consensus behind the coalition’s agenda of tough love.
So there’s logic behind his idea to ask members of the public to come up with their own plans for slashing state provision. Labour tried this consultative approach too, with its ‘Big Conversation’, but that was back in the days of plenty.
The more obvious comparison is with Canada, which introduced public spending cuts of 20% in the 1990s based on advice from experts and the general public.
Britain’s version has already been labelled a ‘PR ploy’ by ex-Conservative chancellor Lord Lawson, who had his own problems with boom and bust. But good public relations is a pretty important skill for a government that wants to be around for more than five years.
Former PR man Cameron understands the necessity of public buy-in, but he also knows there’s a long way to go. Despite a plethora of doomsayers in the media and in government, the public has still to grasp the enormity of the fiscal situation.
Bobby Duffy, Ipsos Mori’s managing director, told the conference that the public are ‘in denial’. Almost four in ten believe there is no need to cut spending levels, while nearly two-thirds assume that efficiency savings will suffice.
Their illusions are likely to be shattered on Monday when the new Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its first estimate on the size of the financial black hole. It will be depressing reading.
Cameron, and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, will do well in such an environment to retain their popularity and support. Just ask Persson.
He told delegates that his programme of cuts and tax rises in the 1990s led to him becoming the ‘most hated politician in modern Sweden’.
But he says he did gain the electorate’s respect and, in the Swedish 1998 election, his Social Democratic Party stayed in power as a minority government. However, this represented its worst electoral result for 70 years.
It’s a warning that Cameron and Clegg will need to take on board.
Mike Thatcher is the editor of Public Finance
