12 September 2003
Met Office officials were in talks with the Department of Health this week to try to save a project that uses weather data to help the NHS cope with seasonal pressures.
Changes in climate, temperature and air quality influence mortality rates, affecting the incidence of heart attacks and the spread of respiratory infections. The Met Office's 'Forecasting the nation's health' project has been attempting to quantify these effects and establish whether they can be used to predict variations in the NHS's emergency workload and help trusts to plan admissions.
Last winter, the pilot moved into its second stage, involving more than 80 hospitals, NHS Direct call centres and GP out-of-hours services. The Met Office had hoped to test the project again this winter.
But the £1.2m secured in 2001 from the Treasury's Invest to Save budget, which supports innovative joint working projects across the public sector, has been exhausted. In March the Met Office was forced to divert £100,000 from its own budget to keep the scheme going.
'Without extra funding the project will die and it would be a shame for that to happen as it's extremely useful to the health service,' a spokesman told Public Finance.
Initial findings have been positive and participating trusts have praised the accuracy of the forecasts, which allow them to prepare for an influx of emergency patients by rescheduling non-urgent operations.
The DoH said a decision on future funding for the project was yet to be made. A spokesman said: 'The trial project has been completed and two external evaluations are looking at the reliability and value of such forecasting for the NHS. These will allow the department to consider further support.'
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