Brexit could mean ‘lost decade’ for London

15 Jan 18

Research commissioned by London mayor Sadiq Khan has found that a ‘hard’ Brexit with no deal between the UK and EU could lead to a lost decade of lower employment and economic growth.

Modelling by Cambridge Econometrics found the worst case could mean 87,000 fewer jobs in London alone by 2030, and 500,000 fewer in the whole country, which would also lose investment worth £50bn.

The researchers modelled the impact of five scenarios on nine economic sectors for their report.

Despite the predicted economic damage in the capital they said London’s strong economy would see it suffer relatively less, widening geographical inequalities in the UK.

The worst affected sector would be financial and professional services, which could have up to 119,000 fewer jobs nationally than would otherwise be the case.

Science and technology, construction and creative industries would also be damaged.

Khan, said: “If the government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment.

“The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards.

“Ministers are fast running out of time to turn the negotiations around.

London Councils’ executive member for Brexit Peter John said: “It is crucial we get a deal that ensures continued investment in London and devolved leadership to improve skills, help our business sectors grow and serve our communities, so that London continues to be place of opportunity that competes globally.”

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