By Richard Johnstone | 10 December 2012
An extra 200,000 people in Britain could be without a job by this time next year, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research.
The think-tank’s examination of the latest forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility concluded unemployment would begin to grow again, peak in 2014, and not return to its current level before the end of 2015.
According to the latest unemployment figures, published on November 14, the jobless rate fell in the three months to September to 7.8% of the economically active population, or 2.51 million people. This was the eight successive fall reported.
However, ahead of fresh figures being published on Wednesday, the IPPR warned that ‘worse is to come’.
It projected that the biggest single rise next year will be in the Northwest of England, where 64,000 people could be added to the unemployment count. This will be followed by 53,000 people in London, and 23,000 in Yorkshire & Humberside
Overall, long-term unemployment could rise by 32,000 to 926,000, while the number of young people without jobs is expected to pass 1 million. Youth unemployment will rise by 86,000 from the current level of 963,000, according to the prediction.
However, unemployment could fall in three regions of the UK. The IPPR analysis expects it to decline by 11,000 in the West Midlands, 7,000 in Northern Ireland and 2,000 in the Southwest.
IPPR researcher Spencer Thompson said: ‘While unemployment has been falling over recent months, the latest forecast from the OBR suggests that worse is to come. With the economy predicted to return to negative growth, the forecast for unemployment is bad news too.
‘The outlook is especially bleak for young people and the long-term unemployed. Hundreds of thousands are at risk of permanent “scarring” in the labour market: having their long-term outlook damaged by long periods of unemployment or by a difficult and patchy entry into the world of work.’
