By Lucy Phillips
19 April 2010
Up to half a million public sector jobs are likely to be lost in the next five years whoever wins the election, experts have warned.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development estimated today that a 10% reduction in the 5.8 million core public sector workforce was probable, ‘dwarfing anything explicit in the election manifestos’. CIPD chief economist John Philpott said: ‘The post-election squeeze on public spending will be far greater than any of the main political parties is at present prepared to admit.’
He added that it was ‘misleading’ to suggest job losses could be mitigated by pay cuts or cutting hours. ‘This strategy has been successful in the private sector as a means of avoiding redundancies during a cyclical downturn in the economy but it is not an effective response where long-term structural change is involved,’ Philpott explained.
The CIPD also warned against Conservative plans to push ahead with £6bn of spending cuts immediately, saying it would threaten economic recovery and risk higher unemployment. The timing of when to begin fiscal consolidation has divided economists. Both the Tories and Labour – which wants to delay implementing cuts until next year – claim expert opinion is on their side.
Colin Talbot, professor of public policy and management at Manchester Business School, said the CIPD prediction for public sector job losses was ‘very credible’. He said the figure was ‘well within the scale and timeframes of previous public sector employment swings’, claiming John Major’s Conservative government had eliminated 800,000 public sector jobs between 1991 and 1997. Talbot estimated that a new Tory government would cut at least 50,000 public sector posts in the current financial year whereas large-scale losses would not occur under Labour under the next financial year.
Unions warned that 500,000 job losses would be ‘a disaster for communities and families’, whenever they came. Unison general secretary Dave Prentis said: ‘Whether in a downturn, or in recovery, the public sector provides essential services that people rely on. Cuts on this scale would bring back the postcode lottery, with some communities missing out on vital care, education and support.’
Another CIPD survey published this week highlighted the current unease among public sector workers. Job satisfaction has hit a new low point, while almost one in five (18%) employees think it is likely they will lose their job because of the economic climate, compared with 7% in April last year, according to the survey of 2,000 staff. Some 39% of public sector employees reported that their organisation planned to make redundancies, up from 14% last year.
‘These findings highlight the increasing realisation among public sector staff that major changes are on the way, regardless of which party wins the election,’ said CIPD senior public policy adviser Ben Willmott.
19 April 2010
Up to half a million public sector jobs are likely to be lost in the next five years whoever wins the election, experts have warned.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development estimated today that a 10% reduction in the 5.8 million core public sector workforce was probable, ‘dwarfing anything explicit in the election manifestos’. CIPD chief economist John Philpott said: ‘The post-election squeeze on public spending will be far greater than any of the main political parties is at present prepared to admit.’
He added that it was ‘misleading’ to suggest job losses could be mitigated by pay cuts or cutting hours. ‘This strategy has been successful in the private sector as a means of avoiding redundancies during a cyclical downturn in the economy but it is not an effective response where long-term structural change is involved,’ Philpott explained.
The CIPD also warned against Conservative plans to push ahead with £6bn of spending cuts immediately, saying it would threaten economic recovery and risk higher unemployment. The timing of when to begin fiscal consolidation has divided economists. Both the Tories and Labour – which wants to delay implementing cuts until next year – claim expert opinion is on their side.
Colin Talbot, professor of public policy and management at Manchester Business School, said the CIPD prediction for public sector job losses was ‘very credible’. He said the figure was ‘well within the scale and timeframes of previous public sector employment swings’, claiming John Major’s Conservative government had eliminated 800,000 public sector jobs between 1991 and 1997. Talbot estimated that a new Tory government would cut at least 50,000 public sector posts in the current financial year whereas large-scale losses would not occur under Labour under the next financial year.
Unions warned that 500,000 job losses would be ‘a disaster for communities and families’, whenever they came. Unison general secretary Dave Prentis said: ‘Whether in a downturn, or in recovery, the public sector provides essential services that people rely on. Cuts on this scale would bring back the postcode lottery, with some communities missing out on vital care, education and support.’
Another CIPD survey published this week highlighted the current unease among public sector workers. Job satisfaction has hit a new low point, while almost one in five (18%) employees think it is likely they will lose their job because of the economic climate, compared with 7% in April last year, according to the survey of 2,000 staff. Some 39% of public sector employees reported that their organisation planned to make redundancies, up from 14% last year.
‘These findings highlight the increasing realisation among public sector staff that major changes are on the way, regardless of which party wins the election,’ said CIPD senior public policy adviser Ben Willmott.
