23 May 2008
The way population estimates are compiled should be radically overhauled as the current systems are unreliable and potentially inaccurate, according to a committee of MPs.
A Treasury subcommittee report, Counting the population, published on May 23, says it is a matter of social responsibility to ensure that population statistics, which are used to allocate vast sums of public money, are calculated accurately. But mid-year population estimates are not 'fit for purpose', it says, and the 'traditional census has almost had its day'.
In a series of recommendations, the committee calls for local population statistics to more accurately reflect available information, as current methods for estimating internal migration are unsatisfactory. It also says the International Passenger Survey, a prime source of migration data, should be replaced with a more comprehensive and accurate measure of international movements.
Subcommittee chair Michael Fallon said: 'It is now impossible to estimate accurately the UK population today. Unreliable statistics make planning impossible. We call on the government to improve the population count as a matter of urgency.'
Local Government Association chair Sir Simon Milton said the speed and scale of migration was placing pressure on council funding, as tax revenue from migrant workers was not necessarily distributed to cover extra demands on services in some areas.
'The problem is compounded because official statistics on how many migrants are coming or where they are going are inadequate. Councils are hampered because they can't plan effectively for population change,' he said.
The LGA believes that local population statistics should use sources such as GP registrations and National Insurance numbers as part of a new package of measurements.
'This would allow the right amount of money to get to the right places, ensuring decent public services for all,' added Milton.
The Treasury subcommittee says it recognises the complex task facing the UK Statistics Authority with mobile and changing populations. But it suggests that information held electronically by government agencies and other bodies could be more widely used with 'strong ethical safeguards'.
'We require the Statistics Authority in response to this report to set out the steps it will take to utilise and better link data held by the government and by local government in order to provide a more accurate picture of the population in this country,' the committee adds.
The report also raises concerns, shared by the LGA, that the allocation of funding to local authorities could be based on inadequate information, specifically over the reliability of short-term international migrant numbers. It says a national address register should be produced to ensure the accuracy of the 2011 census.
The report follows the release of the latest Office for National Statistics data on migration, foreign workers and inter-regional movements based on the NHS Central Register.
Short-term migration estimates have been updated for 2003/04 and 2004/05, showing increases in both years of more than 20% on previous estimates, with 1.2 million people entering Britain for between one and 12 months in 2005.
Overall migration figures, published on May 20, show 191,000 more people entered the UK than left in 2006.
However, the number of people emigrating was at its highest level since 1991, at 400,000.
Data on foreign workers showed that non-UK-born workers made up 12.5% of total UK employment in January to March 2008. Non-UK-born employment levels increased from 1.9 million in the first quarter of 1997 to 3.7 million in the first quarter of 2008.
The number of people from Eastern European countries applying to work in the UK fell for the first three months of this year to 45,000, 13% down from the previous year .
A record number of people became British citizens in 2007, bringing the total to almost 1.7 million, 7% up on the previous year.
The Home Office said the reasons for the increase were not clear, but suggested that speedier decision-making had reduced the backlog of applicants. More than 2,230 applicants were refused a passport because their English was not good enough or because they failed the government's test on life in Britain.
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