09 July 2004
The saga of Westminster's missing residents was drawing to a close this week as the Office for National Statistics prepared to admit that it had underestimated the authority's population by almost 10%.
As Public Finance went to press, the statistics body was due to confirm on July 8 that it had found an extra 17,500 residents in the central London borough and would revise its population estimates accordingly.
The ONS has always been adamant that the 2001 Census, which put Westminster's population at 181,000, was 'robust'. It is hugely embarrassing for chief statistician Len Cook that, following a two-year campaign, he is now being forced to accept that the figures were wrong.
The authority's deputy leader, Kit Malthouse, was triumphant at the outcome.
'This is a massive victory for Westminster,' he told Public Finance. 'It has been a hell of a long slog and we have had to drag the ONS kicking and screaming to this conclusion.'
In addition to the Westminster announcement, the statistics body was due to confirm that Manchester City Council's population estimate would be increased by around 20,000.
Population studies for a further nine local authorities with concerns about their figures, including Bradford, Derby, Middlesbrough and Wandsworth, were also expected to be published on July 8.
ONS mid-year population estimates based on the census are used in the finance settlement to work out each council's share of the revenue support grant. Their crucial role means that the finance settlements for 2003/04 and 2004/05 will have to be retrospectively recalculated.
Meanwhile, initial calculations by Westminster suggest that forcing the ONS to correct its mistake could be worth up to £100m extra over the next ten years.
Malthouse said the government should learn lessons from the debacle. He called on ministers to beef up the role of the Statistics Commission, the watchdog set up to oversee the ONS, which backed Westminster in a report last October.
'The commission has no power to compel the ONS, it can only apply moral pressure. The government should strengthen its powers so that these disputes can be resolved a lot more speedily.' Malthouse's comments came as the Statistics Commission used the publication of its annual report to call for legislation to boost its independence.
Its chair, Professor David Rhind, said the organisation was 'frustrated' that requests for information or recommendations could be ignored by other government bodies. 'The existing voluntary code of practice is, in some respects, inadequate.'
Rhind called for a statutory, binding code instead.
PFjul2004
