Something has to give. With the public finances in disarray, a number of ‘big-ticket’ public projects face cancellation whoever wins the next general election.
David Cameron has warned, in a speech that emphasised thrift, that a Conservative government would scrap identity cards and the children’s database. Meanwhile, leading Blairites, such as Stephen Byers, have called for the Trident nuclear replacement programme to be shelved.
Fans of regional assemblies, Sure Start, Crossrail and child poverty targets might also face disappointment in the years ahead.
Efficiency ‘savings’ can only get you so far, as this week’s special issue on performance management shows. You can get more from less, but in the end the state will have to decide what its priorities are.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, we face two Parliaments of pain and real-terms spending cuts of 2.3% from 2011. Normal service will not be resumed for some time – if ever.
One unexpected casualty of the new age of austerity is likely to be the government’s choice and personalisation agenda. This central element of its public sector reforms did not merit any mention in the Budget speech.
Tony Wright, chair of the public administration select committee, suggested at last week’s Public Finance round table debate that choice would now be downplayed as a government policy.
Fellow participant Professor Colin Talbot went further. ‘Personalisation is dead in the water,’ he told PF.
Services targeted at the individual are all well and good in boom times. But choice requires excess capacity, and that’s one of the many things that will be in short supply in the years ahead.
Yet choice and personalisation have been popular with some service users in areas such as social care and health. There is even limited evidence that individual budgets and payments can be cost-effective.
If the recession really is sounding the death knell for measures that empower individuals, then politicians of all persuasions need to say so – and explain what they are offering as an alternative philosophy.
