Half of public spending ‘will be on health and care by 2061’

30 Jan 13
Health and social care could consume half of government spending in 50 years’ time compared with 20% now, the King’s Fund said today.

By Vivienne Russell | 31 January 2013

Health and social care could consume half of government spending in 50 years’ time compared with 20% now, the King’s Fund said today.

The rising costs will be driven by population changes, wealth increases and medical advances. The ageing population will also be a factor, but will have a much smaller effect than most people expect, the health care think-tank said.

Forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility have suggested that the UK could be spending almost 20% of gross domestic production on health care by 2061, up from around 9% today. The King’s Fund has taken projections for economic growth, current levels of taxation and government expenditure to estimate that this could take up 50% of spending at that time.

In a report published today, the King’s Fund called for a long-term look at whether spending should continue to rise or whether services should instead be limited.

This should be backed by an informed public debate, with regular reviews of health and care spending, similar to the analysis conducted by Sir Derek Wanless for the Treasury in 2002.

John Appleby, the report’s author and chief economist at the King’s Fund, said: ‘While there is nothing inevitable about spending on health and social care continuing to increase in line with historic trends, the pressure to spend more is likely to see it consuming an ever-larger proportion of national income.

‘It is time to think much more long term about how much we should spend, the benefits of this spending and how it should be paid for. By turning the spotlight on these issues now, we hope to stimulate an informed debate about the difficult choices ahead.’

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