By Keith Aitken in Edinburgh | 8 December 2011
It will cost Scotland up to £11bn to meet Holyrood’s targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, Audit Scotland has found. It is also uncertain how the targets will be met and who will pay.
Scotland is committed to a 42% reduction from 1990 emission levels by 2020. The target, approved unanimously by MSPs in 2009, is among the most ambitious in the world.Audit Scotland says an impressive start has been made, with overall emissions down by more than a quarter. But its report, published today, finds that in some areas, notably transport, the position has worsened rather than improved, and harder policy choices lie ahead.
Auditor general Bob Black said: ‘To meet the 2020 target, new policies will need to be delivered successfully, especially in transport. The challenges will be that much greater over the next few years when the pressures on Scotland’s public sector finances are likely to increase.’
The report adds that success will be contingent, not just on the Scottish Government’s actions, but on the attitudes of others, including the UK and European Union administrations and the Scottish public. Only about a third of the changes identified as necessary by the Scottish Government lie within its direct policy control.
This makes it difficult to predict costs to the public purse, and the Scottish Government has yet to identify the proportion of the bill it expects to have to meet. Audit Scotland estimates that the total is likely to be in the £10bn–£11bn range by 2020.
The report urges ministers to refine cost estimates, work with other administrations for better data, and present its policies more coherently, transparently and positively.
It says they should improve and publish the performance measurements for emissions policies, do more to relate them to consumption, and develop a better understanding of how to meet tougher European Union targets.
Green MSP Patrick Harvie urged ministers to shift investment priorities away from roads and fossil fuel industries: ‘The scandal is that if action had been taken years ago when budgets were rising we'd have been in a far stronger position, both in terms of carbon and financially,’ he said.
Labour’s shadow environment secretary Sarah Boyack called on ministers to produce a ‘credible and urgent plan’ to meet the targets.
