By David Williams
13 July 2010
The outgoing chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility has denied he was forced to rush out revised employment figures following political interference.
Giving evidence to the Treasury select committee this morning, Sir Alan Budd said: ‘There was no conspiracy or pressure on us to change the numbers, and no pressure on us to bring forward publication.’
The OBR’s independence had been called into question following the release of the information, issued to counter reports of widespread private sector job losses, which were based on an interpretation of a leaked OBR document. That document appeared to suggest that the coalition’s Budget would result in an extra 700,000 job losses while the officially released data put the figure at 150,000.
Today, Budd, who is stepping down at the end of his three-month contract this month, told MPs that the leaked data was ‘misleading’ and had resulted in ‘misinformed comment’.
He expressed his regret that the row had led people to question the independence of the OBR, adding: ‘I would be very sorry if the mud that has been thrown at me will stick to the OBR, which is a brilliant and courageous innovation.’
The revised figures were published by the OBR late on the morning of June 30 – immediately before that week’s Prime Minister’s Questions session. Budd insisted ‘there was nothing sinister about the timing’, and that the data was issued at the earliest possible time after the leak.
He also said the decision to publish the revised figures was his own, with advice from OBR executives Geoffrey Dicks and Graham Parker.
During the evidence session, Dicks also told the committee that the public sector cuts outlined in the Budget increased the likelihood of a double-dip recession.
‘There are some Budget measures which will have reduced demand,’ he said. ‘The near-term outlook for gross domestic product is not as good as it was before the Budget. It is logical that the chances [of a double-dip recession] have increased.’
It was the Treasury committee’s first evidence session of the new Parliament, and its first under new chair Andrew Tyrie.
