31 August 2007
Do Whitehall figures understate the socioeconomic impact of immigration? More precise local-level monitoring and checks on outward migration will give an answer, the agencies involved say
'In the wake of the problems of mass migration that we have been facing, our system is not fit for purpose.' Then home secretary John Reid uttered those now infamous words 15 months ago.
Lin Homer, chief executive of the Border and Immigration Agency (BIA), then the Immigration and Nationalities Directorate, has been trying to restore the Home Office's shattered reputation ever since.
But it seems that barely a month passes without a new crisis, from the original failure to deport thousands of foreign prisoners (which prompted Reid's outburst), to a backlog of 450,000 asylum seekers' case files, and admissions that nobody knows how many illegal immigrants are in the UK.
Speaking to Public Finance, Homer admitted that 'the challenges that we faced dealing with foreign prisoners really forced us to think hard' about immigration and asylum in an era of open European borders, the flexible movement of labour, geopolitical instability and new security threats.
It's a big task. The UK deals with 4 million applications for visitor or study visas annually, and determines 24,000 asylum applications.
Homer is adamant that the UK's economy benefits greatly from relatively flexible immigration rules. However, she is clear that 'there is still much to do' to restore public confidence in the system.
As PF spoke to Homer, a row over the impact of immigration statistics on local authority funding boiled over. On August 22, Westminster City Council asked the Treasury to provide extra funding to the Office for National Statistics to improve immigration data collection. Westminster is a major destination for immigrants and the council believes that the ONS regularly underestimates its population, leading to inadequate Whitehall grants to fund services.
Shortly afterwards, the ONS published new statistics showing that migration rates into London had slowed by 60,000 against previous estimates.
London Councils, which represents the capital's boroughs, disputes the figures. It claims that the ONS has 'seriously underestimated' local populations and points to poor migration monitoring for a shortfall in councils' income: 14 London authorities have contested ONS estimates over the past 18 months.
Merrick Cockell, London Councils' chair, says the ONS figures, which are in part based on BIA data, are 'in stark contrast to the experience of population pressures in individual boroughs'.
'ONS estimates do not capture one of the key aspects of migration in London, where significant numbers of people stay for less than a year,' Cockell adds.
Other UK authorities believe they are underfunded for similar reasons.
Homer says that she is overhauling the BIA's monitoring of immigrants and asylum seekers. The confusion over data is partly attributable to imprecise national monitoring, she agrees, exacerbated by antiquated paper filing that is now being upgraded. But Homer warns that it is also attributable to a lack of knowledge about populations at a local level.
To overcome these problems, the BIA set up six regional offices in April, empowered to monitor local population flows and work closely with local authorities.
It was long overdue, Homer says. 'When I first visited Liverpool [which has high immigration levels], we had no senior management overseeing what we did there. There wasn't somebody sitting in each of our areas who thought that their role was communication with and understanding of the locality,' she says. Now, BIA regional officials can attend Local Strategic Partnerships that discuss immigration and asylum's impact on services, and the BIA contributes to discussions on Local Area Agreements.
Cross-government discourse with bodies such as the Department of Health and the Treasury is also improving, she says, and the establishment of two new organisations should help.
The Migration Advisory Committee will be a national body (operating out of the BIA), able to form opinions, commission research and examine the macroeconomics of immigration, with the aim of informing the government. The Migration Impacts Forum will be chaired by the Home Office and Department for Communities and Local Government, and will consist of a wider group – including local authorities – that will discuss socioeconomic impacts.
But Homer has a warning for critics such as Cockell. The complexities in monitoring controlled (non-EU) migration, she says, mean that 'urban myths' have developed around immigration and asylum statistics.
Peter Goldblatt, ONS director of demography, told PF that the confusion partly stems from poor monitoring of outward migration. He added: 'Those local authorities that have high levels of inward migration also experience high levels of outward migration. Additionally, many people who say they are entering the UK to live in London end up basing themselves elsewhere.' That, Goldblatt acknowledges, skews the data underpinning council funding.
Homer concurs, but claims that the Home Office and BIA initiatives should improve matters. The government is pressing on with national identity cards, supplemented by electronic passports and visa programmes overseen by the BIA, known as the 'e-borders' programme.
The programme will tighten identity requirements by storing biometric data for each person entering the UK – tying all to single identities. Goldblatt says it should help Whitehall and local authorities better understand the groups that Cockell claims most distort immigration figures: short-term visitors or those who stay longer than they are entitled to.
'We'll be able to count the people of most concern to us,' Homer says. 'Of the 200 million or so who enter or leave the UK annually, about 30% are deemed “foreigners”. [E-borders] will allow us to move to a new generation of embarkation [controls] where we will increasingly be able to count people out.
'So if somebody says they are entering for a month-long family visit and yet our records show that they are turning up and staying for six months, leaving for one month and then doing it all again, it will enable us to say “you're not complying with the terms of your visa and we're not going to issue you with another one”.'
Homer stresses that enforcement will be measured. She will not, for example, clamp down on students who overstay their visa periods for a month.
Estimates of illegal immigrants in the UK vary from 300,000 to 550,000 and the Liberal Democrats this week called for an amnesty so that illegal workers can contribute taxes and public services can be accurately provided for. Some ministers support the idea.
In the meantime, Homer is realistic about monitoring. 'There are certain unknowns that we'll never know,' she says. 'No government can enumerate the number of clandestine entries into a country. We just have to be honest about that.'
PFaug2007
